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Falcons a formidable favorite

It feels premature to write about the NFC playoffs until my favorite team, the Green Bay Packers, beat the Chicago Bears next Sunday and clinch the final NFC playoff spot. And while I’d pick the Packers over any other post-season opponent, they haven’t earned anything yet, and I’m keeping them out of this discussion.

I’m also not writing about who I expect to win the NFC championship. In a single elimination format anything can happen. While it’s helped some NFC teams in recent years to earn home-field advantage and a first-round bye (Buccaneers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears and Saints), some teams have been a complete surprise (Panthers, Giants and Cardinals). It’s anyone’s game once the playoffs begin.

Instead, I’m looking at the most dangerous team. The team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. And I’m coming up with…the Atlanta Falcons?

There is a lot to like about the Falcons. They have one of the best offenses in the NFC with a much improved defense from last season. Unless they trip over the 50 yard line next Sunday when they host the awful Panthers, they’ll also have a first-round bye and home field throughout the playoffs. Another rarely noticed fact is that the Falcons are very healthy, with only four players on injured reserve and not one of those players has started a game this season. And their fans seemed to make a lot of noise in support last Sunday, despite the losing results to the Saints.

Speaking of those Saints, they are a close second to the Falcons. Their defense is playing better than the Falcons, and their offense looks even better with the return of running back Pierre Thomas. They too have stayed healthy (not that it mattered last season when they dealt with numerous injuries) and of their nine players on injured reserve, only one player has started a single game. If the playoff seeding were switched between the Falcons and Saints, I’d choose the Saints except they won’t be as well rested and they don’t have a kick returner as dynamic as Eric Weems is for the Falcons (unless Reggie Bush can salvage his season with an impressive playoff run).

Why not the Bears? They’ll have a bye week, at least one home playoff game and still possess a tough defense. But their offense has been one of the worst this season. Why not the Eagles? They have a dangerous offense (but one that looks a lot less dangerous if you shut down WR DeSean Jackson as the Vikings did on Tuesday night), but they won’t have a week off, and they have a defense that has been shredded by injuries. Why not [insert NFC West team here]? Because that team might not even have a winning record.

The Falcons’ combination of solid offense, average defense and one dynamic kick returner is far from the most dangerous team the NFC has ever seen, but it’s the best the conference has to offer this season.

Most dangerous team in NFC?

Eagles, Saints lead pack

I had a hard time choosing between who I saw as the two most dangerous teams in the NFC playoffs, so I’m just going nominate both. The Philadelphia Eagles have the NFC’s top ranked offense and have proven time and time again this season that no lead is safe against them. The historic comeback against the Giants gets all the headlines, but Michael Vick has engineered late comebacks over the Texans, Colts and Dallas and in the first Giants game. They’ve outscored opponents 125-98 in the fourth quarter this season and 55-14 over their last three games. The possibility of facing a team with that kind of firepower and one that doesn’t ever seem to give up has to scare anyone in the NFC.

I also have to give a nod to the defending champs. The Saints proved against the Falcons that they’ve got it in them to go anywhere and beat anyone. They’re not as good a team as they were last season, but they’re still a team without any fear and they’ve still got Drew Brees as their quarterback. You can’t discount the experience of having done it last year and having a belief that you’re going to win. They believe that Sean Payton’s crazy gambles are going to work, they believe Brees can make a big play when they need it. As someone who follows the Eagles, I can honestly say the Saints are the last team I want to see the in NFC playoffs.

Sticking with the Falcons

I started out this season predicting that the Falcons would surprise everyone and make a deep run into the playoffs, perhaps even to the Super Bowl, and I’m going to stick with that.

Barring a major injury, I’m putting my money on the Falcons playing in Dallas this February.

Yes, I saw Monday night’s game.

And, yes, I’m well aware that the Saints beat the Falcons.

And, yes, I’m well aware that the Falcons offense sputtered and the defense was the beneficiary of some sloppy play by Drew Brees. (Note to Brees: when an NBA player tries a fancy pass and it gets picked off, the other team will end up with two points. When one of your backhanded passes gets picked off, the other team gets six points. Seven, if they have a decent placekicker.)

But, in an odd way, Monday’s loss to the Saints only makes it more likely that the Falcons will reach the Super Bowl, not less.

Let me explain.

The Falcons and Saints have split their season series. The Falcons won 27-24 in week 3. The Saints won 17-14 in week 16.

Now imagine for a moment that the Falcons had won Monday night’s game, sweeping the season series with the Saints. Then imagine that the Falcons and the Saints were to meet up again in the playoffs. What are the odds of the Falcons beating the Saints three times in the same season? What are the odds of any team beating another team three times in the same season? Not good. It just doesn’t happen very often that one team will beat another three times. Call it pride. Call it competitive spirit. Call it statistics. Call it parity. Call it whatever you want, but because the Saints won on Monday, the Falcons actually have a better chance of beating them should they meet up for a third time in the postseason.

But there’s more. The Falcons are an awfully strong team at home. You’ve seen the statistics. In the Matt Ryan era, they had only lost once at home before Monday. Now it’s twice. Should they meet up with the Saints again in the playoffs, the game will be at the Georgia Dome. Do you really think the Saints can beat the Falcons at the Georgia Dome twice in little more than a month? Once was tough enough. But twice? Really? Sure, it’s possible, but it’s going to be awfully difficult.

And that difficulty extends to every other NFC playoff team so long as the Falcons get to play at home. In short, the road to the Super Bowl looks like it’s going to go through Atlanta, and there’s no reason right now to believe that any NFC team can knock the Falcons off at home.

The Saints might have had the best shot, and they blew it by winning in Atlanta on Monday night.

Speed kills for Eagles

Ten days ago, I watched Michael Vick (with DeSean Jackson’s help) get Philadelphia 28 points in the fourth quarter to snatch the NFC East from the Giants.

No, I didn’t expect it. But in hindsight it didn’t surprise me. I’ve been on the Eagles’ bandwagon all season. Since last year actually because — to use a cliche that’s been around since the 1960s — speed kills. And when the speed is at the quarterback position, it kills you worse.

So Philadelphia is my favorite in the NFC, something which will probably disappoint their fans. For if they win the Super Bowl, they won’t have Andy Reid to kick around anymore. Well, maybe if they get to the Super Bowl and lose they can stay on Reid, who is appreciated everywhere but in the city where he’s done nothing but win.

I’m saying that even with the Eagles’ loss Monday night. The team got a bad game out of their system and Vick got a bad game out of his. Yes, they lost their chance at a first round bye, but teams have won Super Bowls the hard way, most recently the Giants three years ago when they had to win three games on the road to get to the championship contest. Philly gets one game at home.

I’m not writing this in stone because the Eagles are hardly the perfect team. The Giants got ahead of them 31-10 by exploiting their weaknesses, notably the secondary and by shutting down LeSean McCoy and the run. But what happened in the final quarter is why Philadelphia is so dangerous — you can pressure Vick for 52 minutes, make him run to his right and not his left and sack him four times.

And he kills you in the final eight.

Of the other likely playoff teams, I like Atlanta, New Orleans and Green Bay — if the Packers make it. I think they will because I think they will win a must-win game against the Bears, who I don’t particularly like because I’m not a fan of Jay Cutler, especially when he’s pressured. Maybe I’m biased because I was at the game in which the Giants sacked him nine times in the first half, a ridiculous figure. Yes, Cutler is better now and Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher as playing as well as ever, but …

I just don’t like Chicago.

So in with the Saints, Falcons and Packers and most of all the Eagles — I’m not even counting whoever wins the West. Heck, you could throw the Redskins in and they’d probably do better than Seattle or St. Louis. (The only advantage they have is that they’re not coached by the Shanahan family.)

I know championships are won with defense and you certainly can score on Philadelphia, especially by throwing to the side on which Dimitri Patterson is stationed. Eli Manning threw four TD passes against the Eagles and he didn’t have his best receiver, Steve Smith.

But if you score on Philadelphia, it can come right back on you: Vick to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek. Vick by himself, 20 or 30 yards at a clip with his legs.

I know, you don’t get to the Super Bowl with 38-31 wins. More like the 17-14 thing the Saints put on the Falcons Monday night.

But you asked who I like in a wide-open NFC?

Go Iggles.

When will they ever learn?

The headline on one of my must-peruse NFL web sites read “Frazier: Favre Has Concussion, But Not Ruled Out For Sunday,” a chilling thought considering that the Vikings quarterback will retire for good once and for all at the end of the season and his team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Vikings coach Leslie Frazier shouldn’t play Brett Favre again this year, no matter what the medical tests indicate over the next two weeks. And the Indianapolis Colts would be wise not to even think about bringing second-year receiver Austin Collie back after he suffered his third concussion of the season Sunday against Jacksonville.

“When will they ever learn” is a haunting lyric from an anti-war folk song, one that also should apply to every NFL franchise even thinking about getting a concussed player back on the field a week after being knocked out. Maybe even two weeks, a month, eight weeks, the rest of the season for that matter.

Much to its credit, the league office has finally come to its own senses in the last two years and realized that concussions can no longer be taken as lightly as they seemingly once were. These are life-altering injuries, with both immediate and long-term consequences we are just now starting to understand, but with far more research necessary.

“We think we’re better now than we were a couple of years ago,” Dr. Daniel Kraft, head of Riley Sports Medicine in Indianapolis told a reporter for the Indianapolis Star after witnessing Collie’s concussion from the stands. “But we still don’t know 100 percent. There are no clear answers.”

The league has cracked down on head-hunting hits, but needs to make them even more expensive to the illegal hitters, with higher fines and longer suspensions. They have also established baseline criteria before a player is allowed to participate in practice and or play in a game after suffering a concussion, but they really don’t know for sure how long it takes to come back.

Collie, for example, suffered his first concussion on Nov. 7 against Philadelphia, then sat out before playing against New England on Nov. 21. He was knocked out of that game with what the Colts said were symptoms of a concussion, and sat out the next three weeks before playing Sunday against the Jaguars.

So even if he passed those baseline tests, it now seems so obvious that Collie’s head was definitely not in the right place, no matter how much the Colts insist that they followed the proper procedures, or that the New England incident was not really a concussion. Oh really?

Perhaps the procedures need to be looked at again, and again, and again. Perhaps the baseline numbers need to be raised, and raised, and raised some more, even if it means that a player who suffered a concussion in September won’t play again until the following year, if that’s what it takes.

When will they ever learn, indeed.

Using the evidence

The concussing of Colts wide receiver Austin Collie may be the most talked about head injury in the NFL this past week, but it is not singular. There are no fewer than 10 concussions on the NFL’s week 15 Injury Report.

You know the disturbing pattern. NFL data support that concussion reports have increased markedly from 2009 to 2010. Even if this rise is due more to the league’s increased sensitivity to the problem than to a sudden increase in head injury incidence, the numbers are sobering.

And they alert us all to a different, inconvenient truth – modern American football, the way that it is designed and played, is a brutal sport.

In some ways, the recent unmasking of the devastating effects that chronic brain trauma can cause, has presented the NFL with an existential dilemma – can football be safer and still be football? And what is the NFL to do?

It rightfully falls to the NFL and the NFL Players Association to take the lead in applying current research findings into policy and practice.

There is a new diagnostic tool called the SCAT2, that was developed by experts at the 2008 International Conference on Concussion in Sport, which could help standardize concussion assessments by comparing an athlete’s pre-season baseline scores to game-day post-injury scores.

And research into sports-related concussions has suggested that the number three may be an important warning hazard for predicting worrisome long-term effects. A study out of the University of British Columbia compared athletes with no prior concussions to those with one or two, and found no difference between groups in performance on several neuropsychological tests.

A subsequent study from University of Montreal compared short-term memory tasks in athletes with either no prior concussions, 1-2 concussions, or greater than three concussions. They found significantly more EEG brain abnormalities in the 3+ concussion group compared to both of the other groups.

The league could mandate that a player with two concussions in a season have to sit out the remainder of the year. Teams would need to be bigger, and there would be significant financial ripple effects from such a policy. And it is possible that players, as well as football purists, would reject such a plan. But the NFL and NFLPA must now consider hard stances like this.

While a lot more work is undoubtedly needed to make evidence-based short-term and long-term “return-to-play” decisions, these early findings, taken together with longer mandated rest periods, could have an important impact on the safety of the game. It is not enough, but it is a start.

Three strikes and you’re out

You watch an NFL game and you raise your hands in frustration when you see a flag thrown for an “illegal hit” that you deem perfectly legal. This was exactly what I was doing when Ryan Clark drilled Braylon Edwards this past Sunday. A flag was thrown and the replay showed that the hit was not helmet-to-helmet contact. Then I’m watching the halftime highlights, and I see Austin Collie suffer another devastating concussion. The hit on Collie in my stance was definitely not helmet-to-helmet and I don’t think it was illegal although there was incidental contact to his helmet by the defender’s elbow.

It was Collie’s third concussion suffered this season. To be more exact, it was his third concussion in only seven games this season. He needs to sit out the rest of the season. The league should mandate a three strikes and you’re out policy when it comes to concussions. If you suffer three concussions in a season, you must sit out for the year. The NFL Players Association should also be in line with this since they are the association that protects the players and their rights.

Given what we know about concussions, it would be hard for me to sympathize with a player who has suffered double digit concussions in his career and to hear that player is complaining about the NFL not properly taking care of him after his career is over. I understand that players are going to play the game they love but the NFL and NFLPA needs to step in immediately. San Francisco 49ers running back Brian Westbrook had to shut it down last year with the Eagles because of concussions. New York Jets free safety Brodney Pool suffered his fourth concussion in five seasons last year and shut it down as well. If Pool had to shut it down, the same should go for Collie.

If the refs are quick to throw a flag on anything that looks like launching or helmet-to-helmet contact the league should be quick to give a TKO to any player the minute he suffers his third concussion in a season.

Terrible uncertainties

Austin Collie’s third concussion of the season raises the question of whether three is too many in any season.

I don’t know if that’s the case, and the answer should not come from anyone in the blogosphere, the press box, or a TV studio — or on the sidelines or at NFL or NFLPA headquarters, for that matter — but only from the medical experts who are finally being asked to weigh in on this issue. The best thing that the NFL has done over the past several months, more than levying fines for helmet-to-helmet hits and enforcing certain rules more strictly, has been finally deferring to real neurological experts rather than its own compromised spokesmen.

Head trauma is a medical issue, not a football issue. Reported concussions are up this season, though probably because of more reporting rather than more concussions. Returning too soon from injuries has always been a part of NFL culture — and team doctors have sadly been complicit with coaches and the players themselves, who are more terrified of not playing — but what we now know about the potential long-term effects of concussions raises the stakes so enormously that the NFL culture can no longer dictate decisions. Ironically, an NFL that has thrived on selling over-the-top emotions must now grapple with a highly emotional issue that easily spins out of control.

It seems that lots of football fans would love to see this issue go away — all of the talking about it, that is, irrespective of the concussions themselves. The most chilling comments I’ve read on this topic over the past several months — typically in response to an online columnist’s thoughtful reflection — have been versions of “players are getting paid millions, and they know the risks; let them play.” I’ve seen football players described as “gladiators,” as if that term were honorific, or at least neutral, rather than a damning sign of a decadent civilization. For the sake not just of NFL players but of all of us, I hope that attitude is limited to a tiny minority.

Against the NFL’s discredited warrior culture, concern about Collie’s third concussion might cause an opposite reaction: a leap to more regulation out of a need to assert a new culture of concern, whether genuine or calculated to placate critics.

We are in a period of profound uncertainty about a profoundly important problem. What medical experts today know about concussions, Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, subconcusssive trauma, and related matters is unfortunately limited. I’m not so naïve as to believe that “experts” always know best, but they usually know a lot more than the rest of us. Doctors routinely make diagnoses and prescribe treatments based on informed guesses. Sometimes they’re wrong, and with concussions the stakes are high. Not playing after a third concussion could mean losing millions of dollars in future contracts; playing too soon could mean long-term brain damage. But who else should we rely on while uncertainty about the long-term consequences of concussions slowly gives way to fuller understanding?

If I were Austin Collie — or Austin Collie’s father — I wouldn’t want the NFL dictating when he can play again. I would want the best neurologist I can find to tell me when it was likely safe for him to play, and I would want the league and his club to fully support that decision. As I understand it, that’s where the current policy now stands.

One good thing has come out of Collie’s third concussion. In years past, how many NFL players suffered multiple concussions and no one knew about them, not even the players themselves? If there is no clear answer about what to do about a third concussion, at least we are being forced to ask the question and ponder the potential consequences of the answers. Our best hope is for advances in the research on head trauma that will clarify football’s risks. But that will take time, and until then the league and its millions of fans must not stop grappling with the terrible uncertainties we now face.

Who’s responsible?

Austin Collie sustained his third concussion of the season Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars and will almost certainly be shut down for the year. The number of concussions having an impact on rosters this season has been staggering. The AP reports that 154 concussions were reported during the first eight weeks of the 2010 season. That is a 20 percent increase over 2009 numbers and a 30 percent increase over concussion reports from 2008. Have there really been that many more concussions this season?

Concussion incidence has not skyrocketed that dramatically but rather the percentage of the injuries reported has increased due to heightened awareness. The league and the media have worked in concert to inform football players from the NFL to high school of the importance of reporting head injuries. The NFL accomplished this goal by placing multiple posters in every locker room around the league and by holding educational team meetings during training camp. Can more be done to protect players?

The product that is the NFL can only be tweaked so much before harm occurs. The fines levied this season for helmet-to-helmet hits have had the desired effect and reduced the number of these collisions. As NFL games are viewed this season many instances can be seen where defensive players either redirect blows or decelerate as they make contact in an effort to avoid penalties and fines. No further significant rules changes can be made without damaging the essence of the game. So if rules changes can’t protect players what about equipment improvements?

The newer generation of football helmets are fabulous high-tech pieces of equipment. They do a wonderful job of protecting players but concussions occur as the brain accelerates and decelerates within the skull. No amount of technology is going to prevent the brain from contacting the skull when a big hit occurs between NFL caliber athletes. What about improvements in medical care?

The medical teams treating NFL players are a who’s who list in the sports medicine field. The treatment regimens and research in the field of concussions have led to better and more objective therapies. No longer are players allowed to return to play until fully recovered all but eliminating second impact syndrome. Further research will lead to a better understanding of the injury and its long term repercussions but care being taken this season will not be improved upon any time soon. So what can be done to protect players from traumatic brain injuries?

The culture in the NFL has to change when it comes to helmet-to-helmet hits. As I said in a piece earlier this year, there is a code among players in the NFL that any attempt to intentionally injure is simply not tolerated. To break this code makes a player a marked man invoking the wrath of everyone with whom he competes. Only when every player on the field realizes that concussions are injuries and plays the game that way will we finally see a reduction in these injuries. Hopefully the transformation will take place quickly enough to avoid rules changes that will ruin the game.