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No excuses for Albert
If Albert Haynesworth has a serious medical condition that is affecting his ability to play right now -- the rumor is that he may have a condition known as "rhabdomylosis" -- then we should all be sensitive to that condition, hope that it's treatable, and hope that Haynesworth will be back on the field playing at full strength soon. None of us wish him or any other player ill health.
But whether Haynesworth has that condition or not, it doesn't excuse most of his conduct unless one of the symptoms of the condition is poor character or poor judgment.
If Haynesworth has a health condition, it doesn't excuse him from stomping on Andre Gurode's head back when Haynesworth played for the Titans. And don't say it's not fair to raise an incident from four years ago. We're talking about character issues here, and four years wasn't that long ago.
If Haynesworth has a health condition, it didn't excuse him from signing a $100 million contract with the Redskins, only to appear to give a half-hearted effort and trash the defensive scheme after a loss to the Giants last November, saying he wasn't sure if he would come back if the scheme wasn't changed.
And it doesn't excuse him for his conduct since learning that the team in fact would change its defensive scheme, going from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
Haynesworth accepted an ungodly amount of bonus money this past off-season, only to criticize the 3-4 scheme, demand a trade and refuse to show up for voluntary workouts. And don't tell me that "voluntary" workouts mean just that. When you sign for $100 million, you're expected to be a leader of the team. You should be the first person to arrive at voluntary workouts. You're the one who's supposed to set the tone, especially when you know there's going to be a new defensive scheme that everyone needs to learn.
Ray Lewis doesn't skip voluntary workouts.
Peyton Manning doesn't skip voluntary workouts.
Drew Brees doesn't skip voluntary workouts.
What's happened since Haynesworth skipped those workouts? Well, you know what's happened with training camp. You couldn't miss the stories if you tried -- although you might have missed Haynesworth saying just this past weekend that he won't be coming to workouts next off-season, either.
The Redskins' $100 million man, the one who should be the team leader on defense, isn't in shape and only lately appears interested in learning the new 3-4 scheme. He's not committed to the team or to his teammates. Instead, he's shown he's committed to one thing -- cashing his paychecks.
Now, there's been some discussion that perhaps the handling of the Brett Favre and Albert Haynesworth situations demonstrates an unseemly double standard in the NFL. Few are jumping on Favre for only returning to training camp last week, while everyone and his cousin is jumping on Haynesworth for his antics.
First, the situations are not identical. Favre hadn't already cashed some of his checks for this season; Haynesworth did.
Second, Favre's option if he chose not to come back was retirement (though anyone paying attention knew he was going to come back); Haynesworth was looking to play for another better team rather than try to make the team he signed with better.
Third, Favre already knows the offensive scheme he's going to lead; Haynesworth doesn't know the 3-4.
Fourth, belying the entire premise of this discussion, both Favre and Haynesworth both mishandled their very different situations, albeit in different ways. Both put themselves ahead of their teams and their teammates.
But fifth and most importantly, the way Brad Childress and Mike Shanahan handled these two different situations tells us little about the NFL, but quite a bit about Childress and Shanahan. Childress allowed one player to lead him around by the nose, which may end up biting Childress on another body part this season or next. Like it or not, Childress has probably lost his players' respect. Shanahan has shown everyone on the Redskins that this is his team and that he cowtows to no one player. That is going to pay off for him, if not this season, then next -- with or without Haynesworth.
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It’s Snyder’s mess
When the Redskins swooped in on the first day of free agency in March 2009 and gave Albert Haynesworth a contract worth close to $100 million, anyone who has been around the NFL for a while had a pretty good inkling of what would eventually happen:
Just what's happening now. Haynesworth underachieving; Haynesworth out of shape; Haynesworth yet another albatross around the neck of the team and its owner: Daniel "I'll never learn'' Snyder.
The genesis of the Haynesworth show came in 2008, when Albert had his best year -- eight and a half sacks and three forced fumbles -- achieving all that some folks had predicted for him when he came out of Tennessee. Despite his ability, he was just the 15th overall pick in the 2002 draft and the fourth defensive tackle chosen because a lot of teams questioned his work ethic, although to be fair, two of the tackles taken before him, Ryan Sims by Kansas City and Wendell Bryant by Arizona, were almost total busts.
Still, most folks noted that 2008 proved what most football people knew about Albert -- that he was a member of the "I play when I feel like it school,'' an expression coined by Randy Moss. And that he played hard that year so he could get paid the next.
Snyder bit. Yes, there were other suitors, but only informally. The Giants, a team that usually makes wise decisions, inquired after Haynesworth and quickly backed away when they heard the asking price. So did all the others, leaving Snyder, as he has done so often, bidding against himself for a player that most scouts figured would take the money and ...
Slack off.
To be fair, he didn't. He played hurt in 2009 and when he played, he sometimes was the force he'd been the previous year in Tennessee. But when Mike Shanahan took over as coach this year, he had no chance -- not with the team switching to a 3-4.
So he didn't show up for workouts, he kept flunking conditioning tests and now he's stuck as a backup and although he could be the second best DE in the NFL behind Pittsburgh's Aaron Smith, the fact that most people haven't heard of Smith is one reason he won't be -- the job of a 3-4 DE in Washington is to allow a more mobile linebacker, Brian Orakpo in this case, to get the sacks, the glory and .... eventually the money.
So blame Albert for the mess.
But blame Snyder more. Dan keeps blaming the messenger -- he shamelessly fired Zack Bolno, one of the NFL's best PR guys, presumably because the Skins continue to get bad pub.
Hey, Dan, look in the mirror. Yes, Albert is to blame and so is Shanny, who is determined to run him off.
But you brought him to town for almost double the money anyone else would pay.
For the umpteenth time, it's your mess.
Don’t count your chickens
Even though his annual retirement dance has long become an absurd spectacle, I've always maintained that Brett Favre can do whatever he wants.
Play, don't play, sit on your tractor, take pictures of weird people at Wal-Mart - I don't care. Who am I to say when an athlete's time is up? It's not my decision.
With that in mind, no, I don't think that it's a mistake that Favre has decided to come back. Regardless of whether or not you're entertained by his offseason antics or he makes you want to give yourself an at-home lobotomy, there's no question that he can still play. And play at an elite level, for that matter.
But will he lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl? No, he won't.
Do I think the Vikings are a good team? Yes. Do I think they're one of the best in the NFC? Yes. Do I like asking myself questions and then answering them? Absolutely.
But no, I don't think Favre will win a Super Bowl with the Vikings this year and there are only two reasons why:
1. His Health.
Two years ago, Favre suffered a biceps injury and it played a huge role in sinking the Jets' playoff hopes in the final month of the season. Last year, he made it all the way to the NFC title game, but he suffered a nasty ankle injury (the same ankle that required surgery in the offseason), which was one of the factors in the Vikings' demise. Say what you want about Sir Fickle, but the man is a warrior. He's never missed a game throughout his career and I suspect he never will. But at 40 years old, does anyone really think he's going to stay healthy enough to lead the Vikes to the Super Bowl? Granted, no player is healthy by about Week 10 of the season, but they're not 40 years old either. Let's just play the trends here; the last two years an injury has sunk his team's Super Bowl hopes. So let's make it a third this year.
2. Brad Childress.
The Vikings proved last year that with Favre under center, they're going to compete for a playoff spot. That said, I don't think Brad Childress is a Super Bowl-winning coach. Why? I think he has troubling developing talent (Adrian Peterson still can't block and still can't hold onto the football, Sidney Rice was the next Troy Williamson before Favre arrived, Tarvaris Jackson is arguably no better now than when he was drafted). I think he mishandles situations with players (see Favre, Peterson, Matt Birk, Dwight Smith to name a few). And I don't think he does a good job of masking his team's weaknesses (especially when he has a hole to fill on the offensive line). So the question of whether or not Favre can win a Super Bowl with the Vikings gets a little convoluted when you remember that Childress is still the man in charge. Can anyone say with any certainty in their voice that they can envision Childress making the right decisions in crunch time of a Super Bowl? I can't.
Even with those two things in mind, Favre still gives the Vikings their best chance of winning, which is exactly why they have no problem waiting until mid-August for him to show up to camp.
But I wouldn't put my money on either of them making an appearance in Dallas next February.
Groundhog Brett
I can't wait to see Brett Favre's final pass again this year.
While others bemoan the drama queen act, I take comfort in knowing in advance how it's all going to end.
Oh sure, there will be television moments this season when the media's Favre-gasm machine will be enough to make me want to stick hot pieces of rusty iron into my ears and then wash my eyes with used acid. There will probably be games when he's able to pull off the magic and somehow all the off-season narcissism will seem trivial.
But old man Brett has an inner LeBron now, and it really is impossible to get past it. It forces me to believe in the cliché; all's well that ends well.
It's going to end well. You'll think you've seen the movie before. History has proven to repeat itself in the case of Mr. Favre's final offering in recent seasons. It's a beautiful version of Groundhog Day, only the groundhog always wears a different color jersey than the quarterback.
And then next year, we'll have this same conversation. Yes, the Brett Favre-returns thing is an industry now. You know -- high volume, low quality.
Rodgers, Packers block the way
Brett Favre can lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl but Aaron Rodgers will be in his way. Therefore, it will be the wrong decision for Brett Favre to return for "one more year".
Last year was the best all around statistical season of his career. The chances of that happening again are very low. We all love Favre for his gunslinger mentality but it's that same mentality that caused him to throw 22 touchdowns and 22 picks as a Jet in 2008, and the same mentality that caused him to throw game changing interceptions in the final minutes of his last two NFC championship games.
The first seven games on the Vikings' schedule are against the Saints, Dolphins, Lions, Jets, Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots. Only the Lions game is a true "gimmie" game. Farve plays big in big games, in large part because he takes big chances. But Favre's reputation for being a gunslinger is going to bite him and his team at a crucial point this season, most likely in the playoffs. Let's just pray for his sake it isn't against the Packers, because Aaron Rodgers is one year better this year and will be a top-five QB this year.
Yes, Favre gives the Vikings a better chance to win than Tarvaris Jackson. So the Vikes are looking at an 11-5 season compared to a 9-7 year, but it's a no go on the Super Bowl.
Surviving the opener is key
Now that Brett Favre has done what we all knew he was going to do, there's the actual matter of getting on the field and validating what those around him have gone through to get him back on the field. And I'm not entirely sure that's going to work as well in 2010 as it did in 2009. In the NFC Championship game, New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams gave the league a template on how to attack an offense with Favre at the head -- go after the quarterback. Hit him when he has the ball; hit him when he doesn't have the ball. Bring constant pressure, make him throw before he wants to, and make him pay when he succeeds.
It was interesting that Williams didn't really do that the week before against Arizona's Kurt Warner when the Saints beat the Cardinals in the divisional round -- then, it was as much about clogging the lanes and keeping Warner from blowing his defense up with short passes. But if the Williams theory works for more teams against Favre, it will be a wonder if the 40-year-old quarterback can make it through the entire season. Of course, Favre and his Vikings will have to start that journey in the Superdome against those very same Saints, and you can bet that Williams will be bringing as many creative blitzes as he possibly can.
There's also the matter of the division Favre plays in -- most agree that even with Favre on the roster, the Green Bay Packers have built a team that can take the NFC North. If the Pack can even split the series they lost last year, and the Vikings have to enter the playoffs as a wild-card team, that puts Favre out there with another playoff game -- perhaps on the road.
Finally, there's this: People act as if Favre is a key for automatic entry into a Super Bowl, but his last three seasons have ended with interceptions, not touchdowns. Favre hasn't been to a Super Bowl since January of 1998, and he hasn't been on a team that won the Super Bowl since January of 1997. This is no lead-pipe lock. Favre and his teammates will have to play ven better than they did in 2009.
And that's the final point of concern -- in 2009, Favre has his best statistical season. While that's a great story, it also indicates that given a chance to revert to his old gunslinger ways, he may do so. The Vikings don't really have any margin for error in that case - they've mortgaged their short-term development (and a great deal of respect around the league) to bring Favre and all his attendant drama into the fold. Anything less than a Super Bowl win will be an enormous failure -- and that's for a team that didn't even make it to the Super Bowl last year.
Favre's return is no fait accompli. This could very easily blow up in everyone's faces.
One more run
Surprise, surprise, Brett Favre is going to play football again for the Minnesota Vikings this season. Oh please. What else was he going to do, play touch football in blue jeans with his Mississippi buds?
Writers write, actors act and professional football players play professional football until someone rips the uniform off their backs and tells them they're too hurt, too slow or too old to keep going. Very rarely do they walk away on their own.
After a season that saw Favre, at age 40, throw for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns, with only seven interceptions, and lead a very talented Vikings team to the NFC title game, there is every reason to believe he still has it in him to take his team deep into the playoffs and perhaps even a Super Bowl one more time.
There will be all manner of speculation as to why he's coming back. Some will say he has $13 million reasons for reversing his field for a third straight year, with the possibility of earning millions more in incentive money. Others will say he didn't want to go out with the last pass of his career long remembered as an interception that helped New Orleans advance to the Super Bowl, and ultimately win its first league title.
I suspect that Favre, a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer when he's eligible, was told last week by noted orthopedist James Andrews that his surgically repaired ankle should hold up for one more season of abuse. And most of all, he had to be mightily moved by three of his teammates showing up at his doorstep Tuesday to tell him how much they loved playing with him and to implore him to give it one last shot.
The Vikings, with a healthy Favre, the league's best back in Adrian Peterson and a stout defense, should be a powerhouse team once again, capable of handily prevailing in their weak division. Along with the Saints, they have to be considered the two strongest teams in the conference, and wouldn't a rematch in the NFC title game provide the most compelling confrontation of the season, at least until the championship game in Dallas two weeks later?
Favre's repeated soap opera, will-he-or-won't-he offseasons may seem a tad tiresome after all these years, though certainly not to the league's network partners, who know a ratings bonanza when they see it. The man obviously loves to play the game. We all ought to love him back a bit and admire his extraordinary durability and uncanny skills one more time. Surely, this will be the last time. Then again...
Concerns at skill positions
As a Packers fan who closely watches their competition in the NFC North (and has a more than idle curiosity in the career of one of the franchise's greatest quarterbacks, Brett Favre), I've been focused on whether he'll actually return to the Vikings in 2010. That way I was able to put off my other question: how much better are the Vikings in 2010 with Favre? After watching the Vikings rise from a first round playoff loss in 2008 to the NFC championship game in 2009, it's obvious they were a better team last season with him. If he could have such an incredible season at age 39, why can't he do it again at age 40?
The first part of that answer depends on his surgically repaired ankle. It was bad enough that he recently sent text messages that he wasn't coming back in 2010, and it required him to have a follow-up appointment with his surgeon, Dr. James Andrews. Favre isn't a running quarterback at this point in his career, so the biggest concern is that it will effect his movement in the pocket. And he may not get enough help from his offensive line. While Favre was only sacked 15 times in 2007, he went down 34 times in 2009. Steve Hutchinson is still the All-Pro anchor on the line, but he's at an age (32 going on 33) at which he could start to decline. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie made his first Pro Bowl last season, but he was also dismissed from the team prior to the game. John Sullivan doesn't seem to be a proper replacement for their long-time center Matt Birk.
But the biggest problem could be the Vikings backs and receivers. Adrian Peterson is only 25 years old, but he's seen his yards per carry decline in each of his three NFL seasons from 5.6 to 4.8 to 4.4. Favre's favorite target in 2009, wide receiver Sidney Rice, has not played this preseason due to a hip injury, and there is no timetable for his return. Percy Harvin had a fantastic rookie season, but concerns about migraines cloud his future. Bernard Berrian was a high-priced free agent in 2008, but he only had 618 receiving yards in 2009, his lowest total since 2005, and doesn't appear ready to pick up all the slack.
This is an offense that could implode due to age and injuries in 2010 making Favre's return a risky one. On the other hand, this is the same group of players that had the fifth ranked offense during the 2009 regular season. The most likely outcome is that once Rice returns, their offense will be just as good in 2010 and put a Super Bowl trip within reach. But there is some risk that this could all fall apart, and Favre could be left second-guessing (does he do any other type of guessing?) his (latest) decision to return.
Window is closing
After 26 years covering the NFL, I've decided that I believe in windows. As in windows of opportunity for any given team.
As of late, they're getting shorter, meaning that in any given season, a team that's not supposed to win often does -- the Giants after the 2007 season, the Steelers the next year and last season the Saints, coming off an 8-8 year in which the defense let it down.
So even with Brett Favre back at age 40 (41 on Oct. 10) I think the window for the Minnesota Vikings is closing. Not only do I think they'll fail to make the NFC title game -- where they lost in overtime to New Orleans last season -- but I don't think they'll even win the NFC North. That title, in my very flawed opinion, goes to the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who schooled for three seasons under Favre.
The reason?
The Vikings' window was last year.
Please don't hold me to this. I'm wrong more often than I'm right and the Vikings certainly have the tools to win. Favre had one of his best seasons -- maybe his best -- last year. He has Adrian Peterson as his running back (hold the ball tightly, please, Adrian) and he turned two teammates, wide reciever Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, into standouts last season. The defense, especially the front, is still good -- end Jared Allen is probably the best in the league and with kicker Ryan Longwell and guard Steve Hutchinson might have saved the Vikings' bacon by flying down to Mississippi to drag Brett back.
But ....
As players age -- even players who seem indestructible -- it takes longer to heal. Last year Brett's shoulder hurt. This year it's his ankle, hurt in the championship game in New Orleans and still healing. That's what happens when you age -- injuries heal more slowly.
So I'm looking elsewhere. Probably not to New Orleans because teams don't win two in a row these days. Maybe to Dallas, although I dislike the hype. So why not right there in the NFC North with Green Bay.
And that's just the NFC.
The AFC? Let Brett worry about that if he gets out of the conference.
Make that the division.
Windows, you know.
Count on regression
Brett Favre absolutely has a legitimate title shot rejoining the Vikings for another season, but when it comes to individual performance, last year was almost certainly Favre's best chance to go out on top. A career year at age 40 screams that regression to the mean is coming, and coming fast.
Favre set career bests in almost every efficiency statistic you can name. Even without factoring in his advanced age, it's hard to see him continuing at that level. Once a player has a substantial track record, they rarely perform very much above or below that baseline average for very long. Over the first 18 years of his career Brett Favre threw an interception once per 30 pass attempts (3.3% of the time), last year he threw one per 77 attempts (1.3% of the time). Going forward it's a lot more likely he'll perform like he did from '91-'08 than like this single year, last year. The same goes for the many other categories that he was outstanding in against his own career average. Veterans very rarely follow a career year with an even more impressive year. For a longtime vet, a career year is much more a product of fortunate circumstances and good luck than improvement as a player. Brett Favre is a great player, but it's unrealistic to expect him to perform at his 2009 level of greatness as opposed to his significantly worse, but still impressive career averages.
Regression to the mean seems overwhelmingly likely, but wouldn't by any means be disastrous. Performing "only" up to your career average isn't going to tarnish your legacy. The less likely, but more troubling dangers are age and injury. Favre has seemed immune to both for so long, but the risk is always there. A nagging ankle injury as been cited as Favre's reason for staying away from camp and the past two years he's took 30+ sacks for the first time since 2000. Last year he took sacks at the second highest rate of his career, the highest having come when he was a spry young 27-year-old. Sixty-seven sacks the past two years, on a 40-year-old body, is brutal. It's not merely worrying about how an aging body will handle the same punishment, the trend for Favre seems to be towards taking a heavier beating as he ages.
Returning for another year gives him a real chance at another title, but makes it unlikely he'll go out on top statistically and dances with the ever increasing risk of an injury sidelining the Ironman.