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Flip a coin

The Packers and Steelers are so evenly matched that anyone asked to pick the winner of this Sunday’s game might as well flip a coin.

Two excellent defenses.

Two excellent coaching staffs.

Two flawed offenses, but each with explosive possibilities.

The Packers have Charles Woodson, last year’s defensive player of the year.

The Steelers have Troy Polamalu, this year’s defensive player of the year.

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. He’s looked superhuman against some teams, entirely human against others.

The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger, owner of two Super Bowl rings. He was terrible in the first one (especially if you give any credence to the incomprehensible quarterback ratings), but magnificent when he needed to be in the second.

It’s unlikely this is going to be a high-scoring game. The final score is going to be something along the lines of 24-21. Or 27-20. Or 19-14.

And the key to the game is likely going to be something that no one could predict right now. A poorly thrown pass. A critical penalty. A long kick return. An injury. A fumble. That’s how closely matched these two teams are that it could end up being decided by a single play.

So, if I must pick a winner in a coin-flip of a game, I do so expecting that I am just as likely to be right as I am to be wrong, and knowing that I might well change my mind just before kickoff.

That said . . . Packers.

And, no, I didn’t actually flip a coin. Just a hunch that Rodgers steps up in his first chance to truly emerge from the shadows of the last guy who played QB for Green Bay. And just a hunch that karma catches up with Roethlisberger, at least for one play.

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It’s a passing league

I don’t know where NFL commentators would be without the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. It seems like whenever I hear a comment about a team with a great defense, but a lousy quarterback, they bring up those Ravens. If they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, then Team X can win one with a lousy quarterback too. The conclusion drawn from that commentary is far too often that great defenses win championships.

The reality is that it’s usually a great quarterback that wins the championship. A majority of Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, and the last seven have either been a quarterback or a wide receiver. I wouldn’t say that proves my point, but it’s instructive that the smart money should be on betting that another wide receiver or quarterback will win again this year. The NFL is a passing league, and any team relying on its defense or running game to win a championship is a long shot.

At first, this upcoming Super Bowl might look like it’s bucking the trend. Both defenses are led by a fearsome pass rusher: Linebacker Clay Matthews for the Packers and LB James Harrison for the Steelers. The Packers were officially ranked as the No. 5 defense (No. 2 scoring defense), and the Steelers were No. 2 (No. 1 scoring defense). In the NFC Championship game, the Packers intercepted two fourth quarter passes. One was returned for a touchdown, and another ended the game. In the AFC, the Steelers forced a fumble on a sack of QB Mark Sanchez that was recovered and returned for what turned out to be the margin of victory over the Jets. Neither team would have made it to the Super Bowl without those big plays from its defense.

But looking back over the regular season, QB Aaron Rodgers had a quarterback rating of 101.2 and QB Ben Roethlisberger’s was 97.0. Based on that stat alone, both quarterbacks were among the Top 5 in the league prior to the playoffs. While neither quarterback played well in their respective championship games, Rodgers finished the postseason with a 109.2 rating overall, and Roethlisberger had a 101.8 rating in his playoff game against the Ravens. It’s not fair to say both quarterbacks won their conference championships for their teams, but they wouldn’t have made it to the Super Bowl without either of them.

While someone like Greg Jennings might be named the MVP, the winning team’s defense is going to have to make some big plays. The last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl, Santonio Holmes was the MVP in part because the defense of the Cardinals couldn’t find a way to stop him. And he might have never gotten a chance to catch the game winning touchdown pass if James Harrison hadn’t had a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown earlier in the game. Defense alone doesn’t win championships, but they’re certain to play a key role in two weeks.

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It’s coaches and QBs now

By Richard Boadu

Defense does not win championships anymore. Coaches and quarterbacks win championships in this new age of football. Defense now is slowly becoming about as important as it is in the NBA – not very.

We love to praise the Jets, Packers, Steelers and Ravens for their defenses. But each team has a more than serviceable quarterback. Also, each of those teams has a top-flight coach.

When the Jets beat the Patriots in their divisional playoff game, instead of saying the Jets’ defense won, you’d be better off saying Rex Ryan out-coached Bill Belichick. Tom Brady was confused all game long and he was at home. This was the same Patriots team that beat the Jets 45-3 earlier in the season. The game was a chess match and you could clearly tell that Rex Ryan was Bobby Fisher and Bill Belichick, for that game, was Joe the Plumber.

Just look at last year’s Super Bowl between the Colts and Saints. Neither team had a good defense, but they both had awesome quarterbacks. Yes, the Steelers and Packers had the top two defenses in the league this year. Just make sure you realize down the stretch, they also have the two hottest quarterbacks in the league right now.

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Staying true to history

The NFL’s two stingiest defenses will be on display in the 45th Super Bowl, a certain sign that the old pro football cliché — defense wins championships — is still very much a factor in a team’s ultimate success.

Name the great Super Bowl teams throughout the history of the event and the very best of the best got there in large part because of The No Name Defense (Miami, 1972), the Steel Curtain (Pittsburgh in the ’70s) and the Doomsday Defense (Dallas in the 1970s and ’80s) just to cite a few examples.

The Baltimore Ravens won in 2000 despite having a nondescript quarterback, Trent Dilfer, far better suited for his role as an ESPN analyst than he was as a Super Bowl quarterback whose main mission 10 years ago was to avoid costly turnovers and score just enough points for his defense to protect.

Of course there have been offensive juggernauts over the years to overcome mostly average defensive units. The John Elway Broncos, the Brett Favre Packers, the Joe Montana/Steve Young 49ers, the Peyton Manning Colts and the Tom Brady Patriots were far better known for their offensive prowess and ability to put scads of points up on the board.

But all of those teams also featured some rather impressive defensive playmakers who could take over a game, when necessary, some of them current Hall of Famers like San Francisco’s Ronnie Lott and Green Bay’s Reggie White and future possibilities like the Colts Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders.

The Steelers and Packers also have their share of potential Hall of Fame defenders — Troy Polamalu and James Harrison in Pittsburgh and Charles Woodson in Green Bay, for example. And both teams got huge contributions from their respective defenses when suspended quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed the first four games of the season and Aaron Rodgers sat out several late-season games because of a concussion.

Both defenses made huge plays throughout the playoffs, with the Packers scoring the clinching points in the NFC title game when 338-pound lineman B.J. Raji picked off a pass and ran 18 yards for the game-winning score. And Pittsburgh’s smothering defense prevented the Jets from denting the end zone in the first half, then had a stirring goal-line stand midway through the fourth quarter that ultimately proved decisive.

Still, it also must be pointed out that the biggest defensive play of last weekend’s title games may well have been provided by a glamour-puss quarterback. When Rodgers peeled back and tackled Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher at midfield on what looked to be a certain interception touchdown, defense definitely helped win the Packers a championship, even if it was an offensive player who made the signature defensive play of the game.

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Defense does it again

Defense still wins championships.

It’s not really even a discussion. Not when you look at the proof that this year’s postseason provided, at least.

In terms of scoring, the top-ranked offense coming into the playoffs belonged to the New England Patriots. They were knocked out in their first game because Rex Ryan designed a scheme that made Tom Brady uncomfortable in the pocket, blanketed Danny Woodhead and took away the deep pass. Mark Sanchez threw three touchdowns in that game but had the Jet defense not been as good as it was that day, then Brady would have surely out-dueled “Sanchise” in the end.

The week before the Jets beat the Patriots, Ryan shut down another future Hall of Fame quarterback in Peyton Manning. What’s fascinating is that Ryan did so with a completely different game plan. He went after Brady, but mostly played coverage on Manning. Thus, in the matter of two weeks, Ryan took out two of the best quarterbacks we will ever see play the game by using two entirely different schemes.

Granted, in the end, the Jets fell to the Steelers – who produced a defensive touchdown and limited New York to only a field goal in the first half while jumping out to a 24-0 lead. It was also Pittsburgh’s defense that shut down Baltimore the week before in order to get to the AFC title game.

Speaking of the Ravens, they produced perhaps the best defensive performance in this year’s playoffs when they held the Chiefs to just one touchdown on their home field. Baltimore’s defense frustrated Kansas City’s offense so much that head coach Todd Haley relieved Charlie Weis of his play-calling duties at halftime. After their performance, several writers talked about how Baltimore’s defense was playing at a Super Bowl level.

In the NFC, it was certain team’s defensive efforts that doomed them. The Eagles’ red zone defense was the worst in the league and it showed against the Packers, who converted on all three of their trips inside the 20. The Falcons’ defense was so bad against Green Bay the following week that the Packers took a 14-point lead into halftime and then added to that lead with two more touchdowns in the third quarter. By that time, their defense was allowed to pin its ears back and get after Matt Ryan because they knew Atlanta had to throw.

Of course, the Falcons’ NFC South rivals weren’t much better the week prior. The Saints gave up 41 points to an offensively challenged Seattle team and displayed some of the worst tackling of the season on Marshawn Lynch’s incredible touchdown run late in the fourth quarter. One year after their defense helped the Saints win their first Super Bowl, it helped send them home early this season.

It wasn’t until the NFC title game when the defenses rose up. Whether Jay Cutler could have returned in the second half is probably a moot point, seeing as how dominating Green Bay’s defense was in the first two quarters. Clay Matthews gets a lot of recognition for his play, but Tramon Williams might be the most underrated cornerback in the league. Sam Shields certainly made a name for himself too, didn’t he?

Give Chicago credit for making adjustments after Aaron Rodgers took the Packers straight down the field on their first possession. That game could have been much, much worse had it not been for the Bears’ defense coming up with a couple of huge stops when Green Bay was in their territory. Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs had two of the finer defensive performances of the postseason and if it weren’t for them, Caleb Hanie wouldn’t have had the opportunity to make things interesting in the fourth quarter.

No, it’s not surprising that the season of offense is being overshadowed by the postseason of defense. Teams like the Steelers are built for the playoffs because they have a defense that can fluster their opposition’s quarterback week in and week out. Teams like the Jets can make it to two straight AFC title games with Mark Sanchez under center because their defense can scheme for anyone. Teams like the Packers can make the Super Bowl out of the sixth seed because their defense is playing the best football of the season.

The NFL is a passing league now and we could very well see a shootout in two weeks because the game will be played indoors. But make no mistake: the four teams that were left standing last weekend did so because the play of their defense. And it’ll be whichever defense steps up in the end that will allow either Pittsburgh or Green Bay to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 6.

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Cliche because it’s true

The teams that gave up the fewest points in the NFL are going to the Super Bowl?

I’d be surprised if it was anything else. Because the football cliche of all football clichés — “defense wins championships” is a cliche because it’s true.

You can look at history — the Steel Curtain Steelers; the 1985 Bears, even those 49ers teams that featured Joe Montana and Jerry Rice that were renowned for offense. They also played defense as well as anyone in their era except, of course, for those Bears and the Lawrence Taylor-led Giants teams that won a couple of Super Bowls during that time. And how about those 2000 Ravens who went a full month of the regular season (Tony Banks, then Trent Dilfer at QB) without scoring a touchdown on offense?

Sure this was an offensive year that followed an offensive year in which two teams with outstanding offenses and so-so defenses, the Saints and Colts, made it to the Super Bowl.

But as noted above …

I dislike the way the NFL ranks offense and defense — by yards gained and yards allowed. That’s because there are always garbage yards — teams that run up 150 or 200 yards passing in the fourth quarter when they’re trailing by four touchdowns because the other team is playing prevent (known to TV announcers as PREE-vent). Or the opposite — the teams that are leading that allow those yards. All season, the Giants and Chargers were 1-2 on both offense and defense and …

Neither made the playoffs.

In fact, the Giants, whose 10-6 regular-season record was the same as the Packers, are testament both to why defense has to be consistent and …

Why Green Bay is in the Super Bowl.

In the 15th week of the season, New York hosted Philadelphia with the NFC East and probably a second seed in the conference on the line. The Giants contained Michael Vick for 52 minutes, Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes against the leaky Philly secondary and New York led 31-10.

Then … bang! The Giants’ defense collapsed along with their special teams — they and the Chargers both stunk there, another reason they missed the postseason. Vick ran wild (and passed accurately) and the Eagles scored 28 points, winning 38-31 on an improbable DeSean Jackson punt return. A defense ranked 1-2 in yards allowed? Yes, but not points allowed, which is the main idea.

Anyway, had New York won the NFC East, Green Bay would have had to overcome Philly to make the playoffs and the Eagles tanked the final game or they would have finished 11-5, a game ahead of the Packers.

Oh yeah, defense.

It’s not just the Packers and Steelers who used it to win. Look at the teams they beat, the Bears and Jets.

Pretty good on defense too.

Yes, folks, defense wins championships. Even in a year when everyone is running up points.

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Is trash talking good for the NFL?

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Trash is our bread and butter

If fans watch the NHL for the fights and watch NASCAR for the crashes, they watch the NFL for trash talking, and the backing up of said trash talking with smash-mouth football. The Jets and the Patriots upped the ante over the past week with a back and forth that would make Vince McMahon proud. The Patriots played the hero, the Jets played villain and the press played Mean Gene Okerlund.

New England has made a habit of proving that championship football isn’t about having fun but instead doing a job. Bill Belichick is the Chinese Mom, Amy Chua describes in Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother. The Pat’s coach is the mastermind of a faceless team where all parts work together (see Wes Welker) and any part can be replaced (see Matt Cassel) without sacrificing wins.

The Jets on the other hand (or foot) are all about personality and fun. Rex Ryan and his band of misfits subscribe to talking trash first and backing it up later. But, miracle of miracles they did back it up this year. They waltzed into Foxborough, spat in the face of NFL orthodoxy and then violated the expectations of every off-season Sox fan with a seat in Gillette Stadium. I’m no Jets fan, but I gotta respect their moxie.

The win gets New York an AFC Championship match-up with Pittsburgh, another NFL darling of the team first, one game at time, aww shucks ilk. That’s not to say the Mike Tomlin is coaching a crew of choir boys (see Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward et. al.) but the Steelers as an organization certainly get a lot more football cred, than the Jets. New York wide receiver Braylon Edwards has already got the war or words going. And if last week is any proof, there should be plenty of hot air to fuel the hype of talk radio and sports pages.

Is this good for the NFL? Let me tell you something brother, trash talk is nothing new and it makes the game more fun. Fans want to hear the smack and players feed off of it. Sure the League says “that comments of a physically threatening nature are always taken into account in evaluating discipline for any illegal physical contact on the field,” but that’s only because it has to keep up appearances. In reality, the 40 million viewers who turned in for CBS’s coverage of the Jets-Pats game instead of Ricky Gervais and the Golden Globe’s, speaks volumes.

Let’s get it on!

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Talk big, win bigger

By Claude Clayborne

Given the Jets victory over the Patriots this weekend, there has been a lot of controversy over players talking trash back and fourth leading up to game day. I am personally all for it. I think it gives an added dimension to the game outside of the anticipation of watching it. Want proof? The New York Jets’ upset of the New England Patriots on Sunday was a smashing ratings success. The CBS broadcast of the Jets’ 28-21 win drew a 26.2 rating. It was the highest-rated Sunday afternoon divisional round game since 1995. The game of the week between the Ravens and the Steelers drew a 20.9 rating, the best for a Saturday AFC divisional round game since 1994.

Buildup is what the NFL is about especially in the playoffs. The banter between the Jets and Patriots involving Wes Welker, Tom Brady, Antonio Cromartie and Rex Ryan led to an excellent side story for the game. Moreover, it made the game more enjoyable as you saw the Jets “Walk it like they talk it” this weekend. I think a lot of people forget that football is entertainment at the end of the day so why not add some needed depth in the form of talking trash before and after games? I do not support grotesque references about players’ mothers or any element in which the trash talking that would be described as “trashy”. However, as long as it is bolsters the game then it is fine.

Hypothetically speaking, I would not have wanted to hear Ray Lewis make lewd comments about Big Ben prior to the game this weekend between the Ravens and the Steelers. I would have liked to see Ray Rice make a guarantee that the Ravens would wind by 14 points, because it would have made that game that much more enjoyable. The Ravens and Steelers game had a built-in hype simply because of the rivalry and there was not necessarily a need for back and fourth between the teams.

Now the Jets and the Patriots have been going at it since Welker and Ryan wrote on the ESPN training camp tour bus to start the year. It was only natural for a continuation of the relationship prior to this weekend’s game. I am sure that the Jets will have some choice words for the Steelers this week and the first shots fired will probably come from Rex Ryan. The nature of his coaching style and how he conducts himself with the media lends itself to his team and they act as such.

Trash talk makes football fun and while this may ruffle the feathers of the “old guard”, the younger diehard fans of the NFL, such as myself, love every bit of it. Someone once said “closed mouths don’t get fed”. Well I say “closed mouths don’t get a microphone”. Yes, we know Rex Ryan is fat, we know that Antonio Cromartie pays child support in every state in the lower 48, so what? Say what you want to say and go out there on the field and prove your worth, just as the Jets did this weekend. Trash Talk is good for football, the media and the fans. It’s only entertainment, so keep it coming, Funk Master Rex.

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Rex’s hype machine

You’re being duped.

Everyone thinks the Jets are classless or just craving attention. But the trash talking that Rex Ryan and his players do comes down to one thing: Hype.

This “us vs. the world” mentality has become the Jets’ identity under Ryan. We read his comments and we think he’s taking pot shots at Tom Brady but what he’s really doing is getting himself and his team psyched up.

If he stirs things up with Brady, Ryan knows that he’ll catch his player’s attention and get them completely focused. If Brady winds up playing with raw emotion instead of using his head, then all the better. But this is a tactic used by Ryan to get his team prepared and that’s it.

John Henderson used to have one of the Jaguars’ team employees smack him as hard as they could across his face before games. Other players grab each other’s facemaks and head butt like two rams doing battle in an open field. Many others listen to loud music, scream, chant or pray.

These are all motivational tactics and most of them are widely accepted. We as fans have come to understand and accept these rituals because we want our team to be as pumped up as possible.

But we want the Jets to just shut up and play.

Think about it though, the Jets do all this trash talking and then as soon as their opposition strikes back, they make it out to be like they’re the ones being disrespected. Do you know how insane that is? Nobody in his or her right mind would call the opposing quarterback an a-hole and then get offended when one of the a-hole’s receivers takes a few pot shots at their head coach. But the Jets do.

It’s a mental thing – that’s all it is. Ryan gets them all hopped up during the week thinking that they’re the ones being disrespected that by opening kickoff, his players are ready to tear their opponent to pieces. Did you see Bart Scott’s interview with Sal Paolantonio after the Jets beat the Patriots? He looked like a caged animal roaming back and forth ready to pounce on its next victim. He made it out to be that everyone was against the Jets, yet it was because of the Jets that everyone was against them.

Again, nobody is this crazy – this is just what they do.

Are the Jets good for the NFL? Absolutely. Do you know how many people tuned into that game last Sunday? Forty-three million. That’s a new Divisional viewing record and not all of those people tuned in just because it was the Patriots. They either watched because they wanted to see New England shut the Jets up or to watch Ryan and company back up their talk. They got the latter, which was definitely the more entertaining of the two options. (Unless you were a Patriots fan.)

The NFL doesn’t want all of this trash talking to turn into the “Don King Hour” but the league could stand to spice things up a little. I love my football as pure as anyone, but the NFL gaining a bigger audience isn’t a bad thing. You may not like the Jets’ bravado, but tell me you don’t love rooting against them. Tell me you won’t tune into this weekend’s AFC Championship Game just to see if the Steelers can finally put some duct tape over Ryan’s mouth. Tell me how this is any different from the old Oakland Raiders teams that used to rile everybody up with their brash antics? You may have hated them too but you would tune in hoping to see them fail.

In the end, don’t be fooled though. The Jets know what they’re doing. They want you to hate them. It’s their way of getting you to smack them as hard as possible across the face so that when they walk onto Heinz Field on Sunday, it’s them versus the world.

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